Get your financial houses in order. - Page 4 (2024)

Turbosina

Joined APC: Aug 2015

Position: Guppy Gear Slinger

Posts: 1,969

The S&P is still up 8 percent for the year.

It's truly amazing how people react to one bad day in the market. All prior performance is ignored, in favor of panic over one entirely normal correction. And yet to read the headlines you'd think the world is coming to an end.

Human psychology is a funny thing.

Archiee

Joined APC: Jul 2024

Posts: 34

It's not just a bad day in the market we're talking about.
We're talking about unemployment data, credit card debt, inflation ect.

EMBFlyer

Joined APC: Oct 2005

Position: MD-11 FO

Posts: 2,214

Did you pull everything out of the market at the end of that 72 hours?

No?

Well, then you haven't "lost" anything.

JulesWinfield

Joined APC: Jan 2018

Posts: 2,313

The only lever to pull is printing money. We’ll print our way out, deal with inflation, rinse and repeat. It’s the global playbook since the GFC. It’s because every country is levered up so much, they have to refinance the debt roughly every four years.

HostileCombover

Joined APC: May 2019

Position: 757/767 CA

Posts: 269

Pipeman, is that you?

SSlow

Joined APC: Feb 2019

Position: baller, shot caller

Posts: 998

I personally believe that it's worse than what we are seeing, but the media is hiding a lot of it to protect the current administration from any further harm. That side is already hanging on by a thread, and ton of negative coverage about the economy would almost certainly be the nail in the coffin for their run to keep the WH.

IF Trump is elected then I fully expect a lot of olympic level gas lighting to try and get people to think that he somehow caused all of it since "hey look it's happening during his term..."

DeltaboundRedux

Joined APC: Nov 2020

Position: Enoch Powell Enthusiast

Posts: 2,244

I love this post.

Tranquility

Joined APC: Sep 2014

Position: Da Bus, Left

Posts: 1,542

Threads like this make me chuckle.... You can almost smell where people are getting their financial news. On the network I choose, a stalwart reporter layed out 4 scenarios with different multiples and earnings-growth projections for the S&P. The short of it is best case we're trading now (S&P lower 5,000's) at a higher multiple and higher earnings growth end of the realm. Worst case, with lower earnings growth and lower multiple, we could be in the 3,800 range (that's with historical recessionary earnings growth and multiple)....

Trade as you wish...

Edit: 4-ish% unemployment and 2-ish% GDP growth is NOT recession territory...

Last edited by Tranquility; 08-05-2024 at 09:34 PM.

at6d

Joined APC: Mar 2015

Position: B737

Posts: 3,759

Turbosina

Joined APC: Aug 2015

Position: Guppy Gear Slinger

Posts: 1,969

Unemployment is slightly below what we would consider to be a healthy, normal, and even desired level.

Inflation has moderated significantly from the post-covid bubble and is in line with historical averages.

Same thing with credit card debt.

But the mass media has to generate revenue, and to do that, they have to generate clicks.. The more panic they can sow, the better it is for their bottom lines. Anyone who panic-sold their equity positions today is clueless enough to deserve those losses. Rational investors understand that this was a minor adjustment, and that (for example) the S&P could endure another significant string of losses before it would even be in negative territory for the year.