The Dallas Cowboys and Dak Prescott remain worlds apart on the extension front. The reigning MVP runner-up is set to begin the season on an expiring contract, which is almost unheard of for a Pro Bowl quarterback in his prime. Prescott is one of the most dependable QBs in the league and Dallas consistently ranked near the top of offensive metrics a season ago.
Alas, the quarterback market is officially off the deep end. Jordan Love, with a single season of starting experience at the NFL level, just signed the most expensive annual contract in league history. Trevor Lawrence, the embodiment of average in 2023, is set to make $275 million over the next five years.
Teams understand the value of a good quarterback in the NFL, which means QBs have absurd leverage in contract negotiations. Prescott can quite literally demand the biggest contract the league has ever seen and he wouldn't be pushing boundaries at this point. That is the direction of the market, and until it self-corrects, every emergent, high-level quarterback is going to net a ludicrous bag.
The question is, will Dallas be the team to drop Prescott's bag. He can hit free agency next spring to a rabid marketplace. Teams would come out of the woodwork to put $300 million or close to it in Prescott's bank account. In short, the Cowboys will either need to overspend for the security of rostering Prescott, or start anew at football's most important position while letting a franchise cornerstone walk for nothing. We can safely assume Prescott is off the trade block.
Austin Mock of The Athletic connects the Cowboys' conundrum to the Patrick Mahomes situation with the Kansas City Chiefs, and explains why the rest of the NFL is operating at a disadvantage.
Mahomes' $45 million annual salary ranks 11th in the league. Teams going beyond that number to extend lesser quarterbacks, by default, have less flexibility to build around those lesser quarterbacks than the Chiefs have around Mahomes.
"These teams are willfully, though understandably, putting themselves at a distinct competitive disadvantage. By paying their veteran QBs more money — and giving them a bigger slice of the salary cap pie — than the best player in the world, they are burdening themselves with the task of building rosters around their QBs that are good enough to bridge the gap between their QB and Mahomes — and doing it with less money."
Moreover, of the last 40 conference finals teams, only five QBs commanded more than 15 percent of their team's cap sheet. Prescott's next deal will presumably land above that threshold. Those five quarterbacks are Patrick Mahomes (twice), Aaron Rodgers, Ben Roethlisberger, and Matt Ryan. Prescott is great, but he's punching up in that crowd.
Of course, Prescott isn't the only expensive player on the Cowboys roster. CeeDee Lamb is looking for his own new contract, while Micah Parsons and others will demand significant money long term. By paying Prescott his current market value, the Cowboys would squeeze out critical members of the supporting cast. It's inevitable, unavoidable.
Mahomes has willingly accepted a discount and multiple contract restructures in Kansas City. Unless Prescott is willing to bless Dallas with a similarly selfless approach, the Cowboys are going to have trouble navigating the implications of a new Prescott contract. That doesn't necessarily mean the Cowboys shouldn't do it — what's the alternative? — but it's worth trying to understand why it has taken so long. Dallas isn't rushing into a decision because it's not as black-and-white as some might think.
There is risk in waiting to sign Prescott, of course. The longer this drags on, the more leverage Prescott accrues. The Jordan Love and Trevor Lawrence contracts probably sparked all-out celebrations at Prescott's agency. It's one thing when Joe Burrow is signing historic contracts. When Tua Tagoavailoa is joining the NFL's upper crust, it's a sign that front offices have lost all semblance of control in the marketplace.
And hey, good for the quarterbacks. These dudes deserve their share of the pie, so to speak. As long as quarterback contracts keep ballooning, however, it will be more difficult for teams to re-sign their high-level QBs and build competent rosters around them. Just look at the Chargers cleaning house at WR, or the Vikings essentially picking Justin Jefferson over Kirk Cousins. The NFL salary cap necessitates an either-or approach in the end. You can't keep everybody.
Choppy waters are on the horizon for Dallas, whether Prescott re-ups his contract or not. There's really no great outcome unless Prescott takes a discount, which seems less than likely.
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